American Journal of Essential Oils and Natural Products

AUTHOR(S): Adebayo O Sani, Funke A Ige and Emeka N Okoro

ABSTRACT:This study presents a comprehensive evaluation of the influence of climate variability and agronomic inputs on sorghum yield in Nigeria, with the objective of addressing the persistent yield gap that threatens regional food security. The research was undertaken to elucidate the complex interplay between changing climatic patterns and agricultural management practices, which are key determinants of crop productivity in arid and semi-arid environments. Using a robust dataset spanning 20 years (2000-2020) from three major sorghum-producing states in Nigeria, the study integrated climatic data (rainfall, temperature) with agronomic input data (fertilizer application, seed variety) from farm-level surveys and national statistics. A multi-stage analytical approach, including descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, and a multiple linear regression model, was employed to quantify the individual and interactive effects of these variables on sorghum yield. The findings indicate that sorghum yield in Nigeria averages approximately 1.2 t/ha, with high inter-annual and regional variability. Correlation analysis revealed a strong negative relationship between sorghum yield and maximum temperature during key growth stages (r=−0.72), and positive relationships with total seasonal rainfall (r=0.68) and fertilizer application (r=0.55). The multiple linear regression model accounted for 78% of the variability in sorghum yield (R2=0.78), confirming that rainfall, temperature, nitrogen application, and the use of improved varieties are all statistically significant determinants. Importantly, the model identified a significant interaction effect between rainfall and nitrogen application (p<0.05), demonstrating that the positive impact of fertilizer is significantly amplified in years with adequate moisture. This research provides a crucial empirical foundation for developing more effective and sustainable agricultural strategies. The study concludes that enhancing sorghum productivity requires a holistic, integrated approach that moves beyond single-factor interventions. The study offers practical recommendations, including promoting the adoption of heat-tolerant sorghum varieties, implementing policies that encourage the joint use of fertilizer and water-saving techniques, and establishing robust climate forecasting systems to aid in farmer decision-making. These measures are essential for building climate-resilient farming systems and improving food security in Nigeria.

Pages: 68-73  |  120 Views  33 Downloads